As we come to a close of one of the warmest summers in recent memory, it is time to look ahead at what the up coming Winter months will bring. It is often said that after a hot Summer, you can expect a brutal Winter. This is rarely the case in reality. It probably just seems that way.

    There will be several factors influencing our weather over the coming months. The biggest being the current La Nina. This is a cooling of the waters in the Pacific ocean, and this often has a strong influence on the upper level steering currents. We are currently looking at one of the strongest La Ninas in several years. Normally during a La Nina Winter, we will have a ridge of High pressure over the Southeastern states. This keeps our part of the country in a Southwesterly flow thus producing warmer than normal temperatures. This also sets up the main storm track to our North and West.

    So during a normal La Nina Winter, you would expect a warmer and dryer than normal season. Most long term models are continuing this pattern into early Spring, and if this is the case, then our area may experience one of the mildest Winters on record. Some outlets are predicting this for this season. Now does this mean we see no Winter weather at all under these circumstances? Not necessarily. Look at the recent rain event we experienced October 24^th through the 26^th in which we received over 5 inches of rain. That was out of the ordinary for a La Nina pattern. Had this occurred in the middle of December, January, or February we would have had a major Winter storm. It was a perfect set up with high pressure to the North, and a stalled out upper level low over Mississippi. This occurred during a strong La Nina. So will we see another set up like this during the up coming Winter months? Time will tell, but it is a possibility. It only takes one or two big storms to make it a memorable Winter in this part of the country.

    If you recall the Summer of 2002, we had one of the warmest and driest Summers in over 20 years. There was a strong La Nina that year as well. We had 62 days of 90 degrees or more, with one day of reaching 100 degrees. Also during 2002 we had a very serious drought with a 10.85” deficit going into October. However; we had a very wet October with 6.22 inches of rain. Most of which fell during the 10^th through the 16^th due to a cut off low in the Southeast similar to what we just saw. The Winter of 2002/03 featured an early snowfall with 5.5” falling on December 4^th, and a total of 19 inches for the season. Temperatures averaged near normal that year.

    Another year with similarities to this year would be 1995. We had 56 days of 90 or better temperatures, and one day reaching 100 degrees. While the precipitation deficit wasn’t as great going into October (-6.45“) we had an extremely wet October with 8.45 inches of rain. We had flurries on November 15^th, and our first accumulating snow with ½ inch on December 7^th. That Winter had near normal temperatures, with 22.5 inches of snow which includes the 13inches that fell during the Blizzard on January 6^th and 7^th.

    To compare, I recorded an unheard of 78 days with high temperatures of 90 degrees+, and three days with temperatures of 100 degrees or more. We reached 103 degrees on August the 9^th. We were also dry with a deficit of 12.34” in precipitation. It appears that we will end October with 5.89” of rain.

    In 1995/96 and again in 2002/03, the La Nina pattern quickly broke down going into the Winter months. While most of the long range computer models are indicating that the La Nina will remain strong through early Spring, I like to go more with the theory that History repeats itself . While I am not saying this will be a block buster Winter with lots of snow and cold, I am not going to say it is going too be the warmest and driest in recent memory either.

    Below I have posted two maps. The first are the sea surface temperatures in October 1995, and the second is this October. While not a perfect match, they are very similar. Notice the cold pool near Alaska and the cold waters West of South America. Also notice the small but very cold pool of water East of Canada. The only major difference is the warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico this year. This could potentially be a source of energy for some Southerly tracking systems. We will just have to wait and see.

    I don’t think that you can discount the similarities above; nor the Winters of the past, so this is how I see the upcoming Winter shaping up. I will go month by month, and then a summery at the end for the Winter as a whole.

November: Below normal Temperatures -1.5 degrees

Slightly above normal Precipitation

December: Slightly Below Normal Temperatures - .5 degrees

Normal Precipitation

January: Normal Temperatures

Slightly above normal Precipitation

February: Normal Temperatures

Normal Precipitation

March: Normal Temperatures

Normal Precipitation

Winter overall (December- March): near normal temperatures can be expected overall with a colder than normal start to the Winter, with near normal precipitation. I would expect between 12 and 18 inches of snowfall this season which is slightly above normal, with a better than average threat for a serious icing event. As in 95/96 there was one big Winter storm, I would expect with the warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico this year, there could be one storm that makes this Winter memorable. Something we haven’t seen in a while.